= NOW 18 WPM transition file follows =

ARRL Director Nomar Vizcarrondo, NP4H, who has represented the
Hudson Division since March 2023, has stepped down, effective July
12, 2024, at 5 PM Eastern.  Vice Director Ed Wilson, N2XDD, will
accede to the Directors chair to complete the remainder of a 3 year
term ending December 31, 2024.  Wilson has served as Vice Director
since June 2023. He has held ARRL Field Organization appointments as
an Emergency Coordinator and Public Information Officer. Wilson is
also an accredited Volunteer Examiner.  Vizcarrondo says he still
plans to be active in the ham radio community. I have a great deal
of respect for ARRL, and anything I can do keep amateur radio
thriving Ill keep doing Its not goodbye, its see you later, he said.
ARRL President Rick Roderick, K5UR, will announce a successor to
Wilson to fill the vacant Vice Directors seat. The ARRL Hudson
Division is comprised of the ARRL Sections of Eastern New York, New
York City, Long Island, and Northern New Jersey.  New sunspot
groups, nine in all, emerged on every day of this reporting week,
July 4 to 10.  One on July 4, another on July 5, two more on July 6,
another each on July 7 and July 8, two more on July 9 and another on
July 10.  On July 11, two more sunspot groups emerged, and the total
sunspot area expanded by 13 per cent.  Despite the appearance of so
many new sunspots, average daily sunspot number declined from 181.6
to 129, compared to the previous week.  Average daily solar flux
barely moved, changing from 175 to 176.6.  Predicted solar flux for
the next month is 205 on July 12 and 13, 210 on July 14 and 15, 205
on July 16 to 18, 195 on July 19 and 20, 200 on July 21 to 25, 190
on July 26, 180 on July 27 to 29, 175 on July 30, and 170 on July 31
through August 2, then 165 on August 3 to 6, 160 on August 7 and 8,
175 on August 9, 180 on August 10 to 13, 195 on August 14 to 16, and
200 on August 17 to 21.  Predicted planetary A index is 8, 15, 18,
12 and 8 on July 12 to 16, 5 on July 17 to 20, then 10 and 8 on July
21 and 22, then 5 on July 23 to August 3, then 12, 10, and 5 on
August 4 to 6, then 12, 8 and 5 on August 7 to 9, then 12, 10 and 8
on August 10 to 12, then 5 on August 13 to 15, and 10 and 8 on
August 16 and 17 and 5 on August 18 and beyond.  We have a new big
flare player rotating through the Earth strike zone with some X
flare potential.  Region 3738 has been growing rapidly over the past
24 hours, with some new spot clusters emerging right in the center
of the original set.  This kind of growth is highly magnetically
unstable and is upping the noise on the day side radio bands.  As of
earlier today, we had already popped a couple of low level M Class
flares and now are approaching the R1 radio blackout level for a
noise floor.  That is quick growth.  I did my best to estimate the
conditions for the coming week in these 5 day Outlooks, but in the
time it has taken to generate them, the regions growth has
accelerated.  It looks like I will need to update the Solar Flare
and Day side Radio Blackout Outlook in the above snapshot to
something closer to a 60 per cent chance of M Class flares and a 15
per cent chance of X Class flares.  I will do this asap.  Other than
Region 3738, we do have a pocket of fast solar wind coming that
could give us a decent chance of aurora at high latitudes over the
early part of the weekend.  This is the only solar storm possibility
for now, although we could see a new Earth directed solar storm
launch over the next few days.  I will go over this possibility and
the new fireworks from Region 3738 in the upcoming forecast I am
shooting now.  For more information concerning shortwave radio
propagation, see //www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical
Information Service web page.  Sunspot numbers were 113, 111, 132,
119, 95, 143, and 190, with a mean of 129.  10.7 cm flux was 173,
165.6, 166, 171.3, 168.5, 178.2, and 213.6, with a mean of 176.6.
Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 8, 3, 8, 10, 6, and 6, with a
mean of 7.3.  Middle latitude A Index was 10, 10, 4, 7, 11, 8, and
8, with a mean of 8.3.

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