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Spaceweather.com reports that sunspot 3981 has produced more than 20
M class solar flares, including two that almost reached category X.
The activity is likely to continue today. The sunspot retains a
delta class magnetic field that harbors energy for frequent
explosions.  The current solar forecast calls for there to be no G1,
Minor, or greater geomagnetic storms.  A potential glancing blow is
possible on February 7 and 8.  Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA
GOES 18 over the past 24 hours, was below the S scale storm level
thresholds.  The S scale is used to indicate the severity of
energetic particles emitted from the Sun.  The scale ranges from S1,
minor, to S5, extreme.  There is a chance for S1 or greater solar
radiation storms due to the complex cluster of sunspot groups in the
Northwest Quadrant of the Sun.  Radio Blackouts are expected through
February 8, with a chance for R3, or Strong, events due to several
magnetically complex sunspot groups.  There is a chance for S1 or
greater solar radiation storms through February 9 as the complex
cluster of sunspot regions in the north continues to rotate closer
to the western limb.  The geomagnetic field activity is expected to
be unsettled to active levels on February 10 to 19.  The current 11
year solar cycle beautifully shows how little we still know about
the universe we live in. Including the Sun, which is a relatively
very stable star, otherwise we wouldnt be here.  Each eleven year
cycle is different from all the previous ones, and all previous
attempts to predict the next one have always failed. Better said,
some of them have proven to be valid. But only some.  The current
developments do not appear to be complex. Coronal holes 11 and 12
were followed by the somewhat surprisingly active regions of AR3976
to 3971, where eruptive activity rose and fell irregularly.
Occasionally including CMEs, which although they mostly did not hit
the Earth, sometimes partially did.  The ionospheric shortwave
propagation conditions were therefore mostly above average, but at
the same time very variable. There was no way to accurately predict
their course, even if only for the next 24 hours. On the other hand,
there was no major disturbance that would have made them
significantly worse. There is only one thing to say about the future
development, it will be relatively easy to predict at first sight.
But only at first sight, the reality will probably be more different
than usual.  The predicted Planetary A index for the period February
9 to 14 is 5, 10, 15, 15, 20, and 10.  The predicted largest Kp
index is 2, 3, 3, 4, 5, and 3.  Predicted 10.7 cm flux is 200, 200,
195, 195, 195, and 190.  Homeowner association rules often prevent
Amateur Radio operators from installing antennas at their homes even
though Amateur Radio has proven to be essential in emergencies and
natural disasters such as hurricanes when other means of
communication fail.  The Amateur Radio Emergency Preparedness Act of
2025, H.R. 1094 and S. 459, would require homeowner associations to
accommodate the needs of FCC licensed Amateur Radio operators by
prohibiting the enforcement of private land use restrictions that
ban, prevent, or require the approval of the installation or use of
Amateur Radio station antennas.  Homeowner associations have often
prevented installation and use of such antennas through private land
use restrictions. This has hindered voluntary training for emergency
situations and blocked access to necessary communications when
disaster strikes.  The text of the House version can be found in PDF
format at, https//www.arrl.org/ .
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