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Steven Hendricks, KK6JTB, has been appointed as Section Manager of
the ARRL San Joaquin Valley Section.  He fills the vacancy left by
John Litz, NZ6Q, who was appointed as Vice Director of the ARRL
Pacific Division.  Hendricks has always had a love for radio, and he
first earned his amateur radio license a decade ago. In 2014, I
became licensed as a Technician, and in 2015 I became a General, he
said. Hams in the area helped him get active in the local radio
community. He held several elected leadership positions within the
Sierra Amateur Radio Club, an ARRL Special Service Club.  With
amateur radio, its easy to operate in many different ways.
Currently Im having fun on HF all while exploring FT8, Winlink, and
emergency communications, said Hendricks.  Hendricks has previously
served as an Assistant Section Manager. His appointment was
effective on April 24, and it will run through the remaining term
until June 31, 2025.  A period of planetary G3 geomagnetic
conditions has been observed on 02 May, associated with two recent
CME arrivals and a sustained period of southward IMF conditions.
Further periods of G3 are possible over 02 to 03 May.  After the
record sunspot numbers reported in last weeks Propagation Forecast
Bulletin ARLP017, the April 25 through May 1 reporting week has more
modest numbers. In fact, the average daily sunspot number, 124.6, is
less than half the value, 265.9, in the previous bulletin.  One new
sunspot group emerged on April 25, another on April 27, two more on
April 29 and one each on April 30 and May 1.  Average daily solar
flux shifted from 216 to 144.9.  Average daily planetary A index
dropped from 13.9 to 9.6.  The solar flux estimate for the next
month has values peaking at 205 on May 15 and 16 and again on June
11 and 12.  The values are 135 on May 3, 132 on May 4 and 5, then
134 and 136 on May 6 and 7, 138 on May 8 and 9, then 140, 155, 160,
175 and 180 on May 10 to 14, 205 on May 15 and 16.  Next its 200,
195, 190, 185, 180, and 165 on May 17 to 22, 145 on May 23 and 24,
then 140, 135, 130, and 125 on May 25 to 28, then 120, 115 and 120
May 29 to 31, 125 on June 1 and 2, 130, 145, and 150 June 3 to 5,
155 on June 6 and 7, then 160, 175 and 180 on June 8 to 10, and 205
on June 11 and 12.  Predicted planetary A index is 18, 20, 18 and 10
on May 3 to 6, 5 on May 7 to 22, 15 on May 23, 12 on May 24 and 25,
then 10, 8, 15, 18 and 10 on May 26 to 30, then 8 on May 31 through
June 3, and 5 on June 4 through the middle of the month.  Weekly
Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earths Ionosphere,
May 2, 2024, from OK1HH.  The number of sunspot groups at the
present stage of the 11 year cycle varies between five and twelve.
Of these, one to three can be described as active regions, whereby
their size and magnetic configuration suggest the possibility of
energetic flares of intermediate magnitude. A number of these are
accompanied by CMEs, which, given their position on the Sun, are
expected to strike the Earth. Therefore, predictions of increased
geomagnetic activity are quite often made, but most of them do not
come true.  Conversely, if the Earth is affected, a geomagnetic
disturbance so strong that it affects the conditions for shortwave
propagation will develop.  CME collisions with the Earth have mainly
caused magnetic storms and subsequent deterioration of shortwave
propagation on 21 and 22 April and 27 and 28 April. Especially in
the latter case, the recovery from the disturbance was very slow,
even multi day, due in part to the decrease in solar radiation.
Added to this was another geomagnetic disturbance in the late
evening hours UTC on 30 April, which caused a decrease in MUF and a
worsening on 1 May.  Links to articles on ARRL informational pages,
radio blackout, solar indices, solar flares, Solar Cycle 25
progress, corona, and information from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW can
be found in teleprinter, packet, and Internet versions of 2024
Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP018.  Sunspot numbers were 196,
154, 126, 119, 88, 85, and 104 with a mean of 124.6. 10.7 cm flux
was 166.7, 152.6, 152.6, 140.1, 137.6, 130.2, and 134.8, with a mean
of 144.9.  Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 19, 12, 7, 6, 12,
and 8, with a mean of 9.6. Middle latitude A index was 3, 11, 12, 7,
7, 10, and 10, with a mean of 8.6.

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